Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix reach $105 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ea44229e77461e53e6d9d42c44c58a1fb60de91d6e6079c25ac452e663b967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19a7…962ebacked No | 33c | 309.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 64c | 309.51$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 21c | 283.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…ba9bbacked Yes | 63c | 274.53$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…1066backed No | 37c | 253$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…09a6backed No | 43c | 216.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…bee2backed No | 54c | 215.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13a…b333backed No | 54c | 211.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7508…8d4ebacked No | 54c | 206.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4961…2a1fbacked No | 54c | 204.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…5ec9backed No | 54c | 201.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…4366backed No | 54c | 199.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bd…fdc1backed No | 54c | 198.24$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…2ff7backed No | 54c | 198.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…b1d6backed No | 54c | 196.68$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…3661backed No | 54c | 195.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…d40fbacked No | 54c | 195.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d3…0be7backed No | 54c | 193.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…6c73backed No | 54c | 190.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…68dabacked No | 54c | 184.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e7…0cebbacked No | 54c | 180.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 39c | 113.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 33c | 60.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5d…3328backed Yes | 75c | 58.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d67…e602backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe71…31fbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes | 32c | 38.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 51c | 36.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…2ee6backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1929…346bbacked No | 35c | 29.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -33%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…9550backed No | 54c | 29.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…1d84backed No | 70c | 26.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 55c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix reach $105 in April?this page
- Will Netflix dip to $0 in April?No won
- Will Netflix dip to $35 in April?No won
- Will Netflix dip to $70 in April?No won
- Will Netflix reach $140 in April?No won
- Will Netflix reach $298 in April?No won
- Will Netflix reach $455 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.