Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaf48673d4d98e9c839fa491217013c3a2d1fcfbebc6c12953c557f00f93e9fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof Grind Back, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Carstensz | 22c | 4,769$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.98 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Carstensz | 31c | 2,777$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.94 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Grind Back | 70c | 2,735$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.15 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…5bb7backed Grind Back | 70c | 1,750$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grind Back | 80c | 1,404$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.19 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Carstensz | 35c | 1,283$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Grind Back | 72c | 1,024$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.17 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Carstensz | 29c | 985.95$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.6 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Grind Back | 72c | 949.25$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.37 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Grind Back | 76c | 472.11$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.31 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe001…13c1backed Grind Back | 75c | 398.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5809…9868backed Carstensz | 23c | 380.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 21c | 350.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Grind Back | 69c | 335.37$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Carstensz | 20c | 299.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Carstensz | 30c | 296.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Carstensz | 24c | 289.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 30c | 288.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Grind Back | 71c | 281.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…03d7backed Grind Back | 73c | 265$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Carstensz | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Grind Back | 64c | 241.37$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Carstensz | 30c | 197$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Carstensz | 29c | 195.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Carstensz | 36c | 194.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Grind Back | 69c | 181.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Carstensz | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Grind Back | 76c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Grind Back | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc218…2c33backed Carstensz | 36c | 85.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Carstensz | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Grind Back | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Carstensz | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Grind Back | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Carstensz | 25c | 57.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Grind Back | 75c | 53.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbe…2237backed Grind Back | 75c | 40.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Grind Back | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Grind Back | 79c | 37.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…d7cebacked Carstensz | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…d958backed Grind Back | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Grind Back | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb061…5b1cbacked Grind Back | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Grind Back | 55c | 18.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…fa0dbacked Grind Back | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerCarstensz won
- Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5)Carstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.