TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Carstenszof Grind Back, Carstensz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d24…20b3backed Grind Back36c4,029$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.7854246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz51c3,960$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.061,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Carstensz72c2,157$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.9879159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd3…6c9abacked Carstensz30c1,949$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.071353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Grind Back69c1,520$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.0612155.4%67 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+134.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Carstensz37c1,500$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.537945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed Carstensz59c1,250$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.52572%18 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Grind Back40c1,171$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.2716547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x633e…ff78backed Carstensz24c1,121$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.66825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Grind Back74c1,100$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.1912149.6%60 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Grind Back22c999.96$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.495339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-31.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Grind Back74c865.75$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.655949.2%29 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Carstensz26c844$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+89.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Carstensz25c706.88$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.8123342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Grind Back71c666$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.9686659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Carstensz26c650.53$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.5153558.9%315 W · 220 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked Grind Back72c636$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.882065%13 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Grind Back62c604.91$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.7379559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Carstensz15c578.86$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.5241055.1%226 W · 184 L+39.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Carstensz30c504.99$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.51,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Carstensz32c441.38$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.3857735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Carstensz34c385.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.4453139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Carstensz29c384.18$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.851,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Carstensz30c379.4$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.3161249.7%304 W · 308 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Grind Back45c370.96$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.729466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz29c350.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.052,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Grind Back52c342.96$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0792846.2%429 W · 499 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1052…441bbacked Grind Back74c337.06$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Carstensz31c327.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.5415145%68 W · 83 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Grind Back63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b80…e5dfbacked Grind Back71c316.35$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2262040%8 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf64f…9f48backed Carstensz27c303.3$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.412630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf773…f97ebacked Grind Back75c282.84$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Carstensz37c270.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8346049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Grind Back53c267.98$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.31,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed Carstensz50c252.92$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.4625254.4%137 W · 115 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9311…e731backed Carstensz14c251$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.82356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Grind Back44c230$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.841,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz36c220.77$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.111,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Grind Back69c217.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4835637.1%132 W · 224 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Grind Back47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948448.8%41 W · 43 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked Grind Back74c199.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14810551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd879…2f44backed Grind Back71c199.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.99825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Grind Back66c194.63$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4541244.7%184 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Carstensz35c192.8$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.3217448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed Carstensz21c190.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7525238.9%98 W · 154 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc542…7fe1backed Carstensz58c189.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Carstensz26c187.61$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.8329432.3%95 W · 199 L-19.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Carstensz63c184.18$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3934561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Grind Back42c173.67$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4635430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Grind Back73c171.46$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.72445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc218…2c33backed Grind Back34c167.67$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Grind Back10c167.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7614452.1%75 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Grind Back47c166.35$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1816837.5%63 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked Grind Back39c158$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.217636.9%65 W · 111 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Carstensz44c151.81$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.061,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed Grind Back66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.159956.6%56 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Grind Back59c139.95$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0969033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Grind Back71c138.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.620342.4%86 W · 117 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Carstensz10c135.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9915643.6%68 W · 88 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b6…2c93backed Grind Back71c135.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8740%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed Carstensz37c127.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.864663%29 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked Carstensz63c120.28$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.281020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-67.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Grind Back39c115.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4513129.8%39 W · 92 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Carstensz71c111.72$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7214763.3%93 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Grind Back57c111$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8728336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Carstensz29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4551550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grind Back66c102.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.172,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Grind Back46c102.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1433554.6%183 W · 152 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Carstensz64c100.69$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.154367.4%29 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e9…b2e0backed Grind Back70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703083.3%25 W · 5 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+27.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Carstensz29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7143538.6%168 W · 267 L-1.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Grind Back47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4716453.7%88 W · 76 L+15.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Grind Back75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511653.4%62 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Carstensz26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7275…8b45backed Carstensz66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ed3…135fbacked Carstensz76c90.25$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc076…d987backed Carstensz68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6b…b245backed Carstensz29c89.74$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476e…cfb9backed Grind Back68c87$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.074165.9%27 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b7…561bbacked Grind Back57c86.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Carstensz65c85.07$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.791,25549.6%623 W · 632 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x259b…a2d3backed Carstensz51c82.27$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.271250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed Grind Back69c72.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed Grind Back44c72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4310852.8%57 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb061…5b1cbacked Grind Back47c70.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.251855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked Grind Back42c69.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.328547.4%135 W · 150 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Grind Back72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015069.3%104 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Grind Back73c69.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6919643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed Grind Back61c68.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4221465%139 W · 75 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf061…a9aabacked Grind Back32c67.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.711136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03cf…7e40backed Grind Back78c63.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked Grind Back36c62.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3822740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb897…e44ebacked Grind Back42c61.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Grind Back47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.221748.8%106 W · 111 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Grind Back71c59.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5990756.1%509 W · 398 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf08…12a3backed Carstensz25c56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Carstensz33c55.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.222524%6 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x431a…50d7backed Carstensz70c52.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8621344.1%94 W · 119 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18c6…8e8fbacked Carstensz25c52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.