Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff223db8c20b01b1926200772eaa4d72288028a162c05494290d8a4936ccb419
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Grind Back, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 37c | 7,729$2,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,856.48 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Grind Back | 56c | 2,059$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.7 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Grind Back | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5809…9868backed Grind Back | 29c | 1,253$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.73 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Grind Back | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Grind Back | 70c | 1,000$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.18 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Grind Back | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Grind Back | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Grind Back | 73c | 941$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.33 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Grind Back | 76c | 634.71$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.04 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carstensz | 41c | 567.3$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.93 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Carstensz | 63c | 541$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.14 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Grind Back | 66c | 505.15$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.4 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Carstensz | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 21c | 446.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.3 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Carstensz | 35c | 404.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.15 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Grind Back | 64c | 395$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.83 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…03d7backed Grind Back | 67c | 390$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Grind Back | 78c | 356.22$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.5 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Carstensz | 44c | 336.01$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Carstensz | 21c | 334.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.86 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Carstensz | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…e731backed Grind Back | 71c | 291.12$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.9 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Carstensz | 29c | 290$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Grind Back | 22c | 264$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Grind Back | 71c | 260.62$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.51 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Grind Back | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Carstensz | 31c | 235$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Grind Back | 41c | 230$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Grind Back | 67c | 226.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Grind Back | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…86c8backed Grind Back | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked Grind Back | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Grind Back | 69c | 175$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Carstensz | 35c | 170.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Grind Back | 68c | 147.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Grind Back | 45c | 146$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz | 26c | 144.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…00abbacked Carstensz | 18c | 139.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Grind Back | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Grind Back | 56c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Grind Back | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Grind Back | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Carstensz | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Grind Back | 48c | 98.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Grind Back | 69c | 97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Grind Back | 68c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Grind Back | 68c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Carstensz | 21c | 79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Carstensz | 32c | 76.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Carstensz | 33c | 73.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Grind Back | 71c | 70.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Grind Back | 44c | 66.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Carstensz | 27c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Grind Back | 73c | 62.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Carstensz | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb061…5b1cbacked Grind Back | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Grind Back | 38c | 58.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Carstensz | 32c | 55.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Grind Back | 56c | 49.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Grind Back | 64c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Grind Back | 67c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Grind Back | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Grind Back | 78c | 34.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Grind Back | 34c | 31.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Grind Back | 52c | 27.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Grind Back | 62c | 23.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed Grind Back | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Carstensz | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerGrind Back won
- Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5)Carstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.