Earnings · resolved market
Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fe2d3e0b79bf0c35e78323b8014615944ee2e57648101354432f4eff14d8988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5921…c785backed No | 44c | 3,150$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 29c | 1,496$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.32 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 65c | 655.62$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.21 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 63c | 650$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 13c | 611.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.69 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 59c | 543.46$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.44 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 478.07$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.43 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed Yes | 71c | 450$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 57c | 350.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 38c | 299.16$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.48 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed Yes | 20c | 293.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 278.74$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.76 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 62c | 273.01$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 70c | 208.54$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 62c | 175$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6920…4feebacked Yes | 66c | 173.26$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…be3bbacked Yes | 66c | 150.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed Yes | 66c | 146.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 33c | 137.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cba…c635backed Yes | 64c | 120.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 69c | 98.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c0…a9b6backed No | 35c | 94.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 72c | 85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 72c | 85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 36c | 79.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 14c | 78.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +251.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 31c | 75.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…52eabacked No | 14c | 74.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…413bbacked Yes | 67c | 72.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed Yes | 73c | 66.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 74c | 65.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 76c | 58.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 67c | 57.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 54.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…3f19backed Yes | 69c | 52.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…1fb0backed Yes | 64c | 51.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…ea0cbacked Yes | 63c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…6f9dbacked No | 45c | 48.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…a244backed Yes | 65c | 42.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 31c | 39.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 37.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 67c | 31.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed Yes | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…f545backed Yes | 75c | 26.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed No | 49c | 23.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…313fbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 77cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 75c | 19.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…1114backed Yes | 60c | 16.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c2…8971backed Yes | 65c | 15.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.