Token Launches · resolved market
Over $2M committed to the Multipli public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4a5973a74b43d56d8a879a89d86b84438a208dc65f6bb386ed0cb0ffa354ce3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 40c | 1,444$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.66 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 54c | 1,286$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 700$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 65c | 600$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.51 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | +19.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…6bf8backed Yes | 45c | 526.99$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +10.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9ec0backed Yes | 41c | 256$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 49c | 233.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.72 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 52c | 181.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…b613backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0053…b066backed No | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 44c | 89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 68c | 79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 51c | 78.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed Yes | 30c | 66.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 66.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 65.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…70c5backed Yes | 43c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 25c | 42.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 79c | 41.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…cca1backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf15…91c5backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…a91ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed Yes | 38c | 33.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 77c | 26.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 39c | 26.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 24.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 465 | 20.4%95 W · 370 L | -68.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…5d02backed No | 72c | 21.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…83e1backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9793…913cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $2M committed to the Multipli public sale?this page
- Over $1.5M committed to the Multipli public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.75M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the Multipli public sale?Yes won
- Over $2.25M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $30M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $500k committed to the Multipli public sale?Yes won
- Over $6M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.