Token Launches · resolved market
Over $6M committed to the Multipli public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21bd5718d1d133ad0a9869254dc88e6474d2ea3f953c27d8aa8b06b1dbd4cdbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 18c | 814.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed No | 70c | 285.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 18c | 160$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…eec3backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…c2a8backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 74c | 28.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $6M committed to the Multipli public sale?this page
- Over $1.5M committed to the Multipli public sale?Yes won
- Over $1.75M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the Multipli public sale?Yes won
- Over $2.25M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $30M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
- Over $500k committed to the Multipli public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the Multipli public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.