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Token Launches · resolved market

Over $8M committed to the Multipli public sale?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,845 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab51…2473backed Yes9c1,096$93 inLost-$93.3413522.2%30 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+173.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes20c146$29 inLost-$29.113228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3fa…7be3backed No73c70$51 inWon+$18.59714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-80.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No78c24$19 inWon+$5.36977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4292…4a08backed No79c21$17 inWon+$4.411631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No73c20$15 inWon+$5.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8873…852abacked No79c20$16 inWon+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf866…00d3backed No79c20$16 inWon+$4.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.