Dota2 · resolved market
Will PARIVISION win DreamLeague Season 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ff1e22bfa326bc4643a3e551752b5175fc3a90072dc85a168d477c0251e9fef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 42c | 4,444$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.06 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 54c | 2,006$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.61 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 57c | 1,732$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.44 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yes | 59c | 1,469$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.22 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 36c | 401.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 337.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 52c | 334.86$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.98 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 310$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 282$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 63c | 274.58$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 19c | 268.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.64 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 44c | 226$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Yes | 23c | 214.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 14c | 207.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…ae46backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 140.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 104.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…7d48backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 94.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…3182backed Yes | 55c | 91.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 91.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Yes | 55c | 84.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afa…a29ebacked Yes | 55c | 72.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 57c | 63.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158e…216bbacked Yes | 61c | 57.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 57.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 71c | 42.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…ccfabacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 56 | 82.1%46 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 34.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3c…7f39backed Yes | 60c | 33.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 70c | 30.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 37c | 30.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed No | 50c | 26.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked No | 56c | 25.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Yes | 65c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 21.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 59c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PARIVISION win DreamLeague Season 29?this page
- Will Aurora Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will BetBoom Team win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will PlayTime win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Team Falcons win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Team Liquid win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Team Spirit win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Tundra Esports win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.