Dota2 · resolved market
Will Team Falcons win DreamLeague Season 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9179908911a5921a021f37947f5d844b501e04cb4c2a41d235ef5e41a834bf31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 33c | 1,180$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.23 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 6c | 994.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed No | 60c | 727.1$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.23 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 243.68$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 27c | 237.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d77…b6f4backed Yes | 39c | 202$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…52efbacked Yes | 42c | 94.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked No | 75c | 86.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Yes | 46c | 65.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…98edbacked No | 77c | 51.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…07d4backed Yes | 49c | 51.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 43.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae66…30a0backed Yes | 44c | 34.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 28.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 24.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Team Falcons win DreamLeague Season 29?this page
- Will Aurora Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will BetBoom Team win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will PARIVISION win DreamLeague Season 29?Yes won
- Will PlayTime win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Team Liquid win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Team Spirit win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Tundra Esports win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.