TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Will Team Spirit win DreamLeague Season 29?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,132

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,284 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x36bf…2864backed Yes12c410.33$51 inLost-$50.7517023.5%40 W · 130 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Yes25c290.59$71 inLost-$71.3480742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Yes15c269.99$40 inLost-$40.538649.5%191 W · 195 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Yes27c199.99$54 inLost-$5451544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes26c168.39$44 inLost-$44.0837754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost-$2031644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c72.23$53 inWon+$19.481471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c6f…07d4backed Yes44c66.93$29 inLost-$29.451346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No71c58.57$42 inWon+$16.92839.3%11 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Yes31c57.35$18 inLost-$18.0553764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No74c42$31 inWon+$10.9560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No64c40$26 inWon+$14.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Yes32c35$11 inLost-$11.21844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c30.25$22 inWon+$8.171172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No68c30$20 inWon+$9.64100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c30$22 inWon+$8.11266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No72c27.99$20 inWon+$7.94650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No72c27$19 inWon+$7.54988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick75cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No73c22.85$17 inWon+$6.09977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No71c21.06$15 inWon+$6.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…f40dbacked No80c20$16 inWon+$4.144771.1%318 W · 129 L+27.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6837…1108backed No65c20$13 inWon+$6.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x153a…cb6cbacked No62c19$12 inWon+$7.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c18.07$13 inWon+$4.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No73c15$11 inWon+$4.05955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.