Dota2 · resolved market
Will Aurora Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04cbfd3b1b569b2e6787fed8b4478cebfc099f1be950304591d1f21c4d695285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Yes | 43c | 3,253$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.18 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 52c | 1,822$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.53 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 64c | 1,222$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.57 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,172$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.09 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f2…89a3backed Yes | 30c | 821.19$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 805.02$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 52c | 740.27$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.77 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 15c | 716.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 45c | 679.63$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.29 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 34c | 627$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 74c | 600.29$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 21c | 383.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 6c | 382.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yes | 12c | 333.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 9c | 240.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a2…c0edbacked Yes | 29c | 239.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Yes | 48c | 225.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes | 10c | 151.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…551ebacked Yes | 35c | 134.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 132$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 27c | 130.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 40c | 115.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 110.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 66c | 95.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Yes | 22c | 92.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3eb…33d3backed Yes | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…aa1fbacked Yes | 46c | 76.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 67.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked No | 58c | 61.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 151 | 67.5%102 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 61.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 36.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 34.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 48c | 31.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Yes | 55c | 19.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aurora Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29?this page
- Will BetBoom Team win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will PARIVISION win DreamLeague Season 29?Yes won
- Will PlayTime win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Team Falcons win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Team Liquid win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Team Spirit win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Tundra Esports win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.