TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,445 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd161…4cc1backed Yes56c299.99$168 inWon+$13278445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes62c290.32$180 inWon+$110.3219951.8%103 W · 96 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No38c290.32$110 inLost-$110.3233049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked No43c254.07$109 inLost-$109.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb25…03e5backed Yes57c173.46$99 inWon+$74.592466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+23.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed No44c137.84$61 inLost-$60.6525753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No42c116.32$49 inLost-$48.8585449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb94…a015backed No44c100$44 inLost-$444360.5%26 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x71b7…adb1backed Yes58c86.21$50 inWon+$36.212748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No38c75.59$28 inLost-$28.3624949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed No44c68.18$30 inLost-$3014953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes51c65.81$34 inWon+$3276054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No49c40.81$20 inLost-$2019555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes57c40.35$23 inWon+$17.357561.3%46 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes57c40$23 inWon+$17.26150.8%31 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc78b…5c76backed Yes58c25.97$15 inWon+$10.975736.8%21 W · 36 L-9.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes62c25$16 inWon+$9.519959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No48c25$12 inLost-$1233356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Yes55c21.18$12 inWon+$9.5311852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 84. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.