Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: SWIM (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1ae25b0a02ec1062ba568ac8b3204fbfbf447be1a9da10ec8fc6ff4852b1ed4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SwimTrek Blueof SwimTrek Blue, Shopify Rebellion Gold
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 56c | 1,358$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24f0…61edbacked SwimTrek Blue | 42c | 372.09$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed SwimTrek Blue | 43c | 350.45$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…ea01backed SwimTrek Blue | 46c | 328.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked SwimTrek Blue | 51c | 300$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 344 | 43.3%149 W · 195 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed SwimTrek Blue | 43c | 236.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 260 | 51.9%135 W · 125 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8e…ce7dbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 69c | 147.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed SwimTrek Blue | 43c | 141.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 279 | 56.6%158 W · 121 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed SwimTrek Blue | 45c | 100.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 199 | 45.2%90 W · 109 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37db…dff4backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -18.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: SWIM (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (+1.5)this page
- Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America PlayoffsSwimTrek Blue won
- Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 2 WinnerSwimTrek Blue won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.