Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
NCAA Tournament: 1 seed knocked out before round of 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4136ad325c7d86922737f811053e062eb8e6ccc53ab680d0ee6afa0760b3456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,136 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d60…4b0dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,496$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf078…943fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,494$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…440cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,489$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…64febacked Yes | 40c | 1,484$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…a64cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,478$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde1…0085backed Yes | 40c | 1,473$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ce…5c86backed Yes | 40c | 1,470$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812d…04e5backed Yes | 40c | 1,456$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf06…bb42backed No | 60c | 998$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0411…3cc4backed No | 60c | 997$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ff…46b9backed No | 60c | 997$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8412…820fbacked No | 60c | 993$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…711bbacked No | 60c | 990$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcb…f740backed No | 60c | 990$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…1db6backed No | 60c | 988$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583e…cfa0backed No | 60c | 985$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…ec2fbacked No | 60c | 983$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…7899backed No | 60c | 976$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…900dbacked No | 60c | 973$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd432…a6b8backed No | 60c | 970$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 48c | 699.78$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.77 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 67c | 541.78$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 63c | 439.79$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…af50backed Yes | 49c | 408.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 61c | 397.16$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.91 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed Yes | 35c | 360$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed No | 36c | 340.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 54c | 339.59$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.47 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…9d02backed No | 52c | 300$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 45c | 284.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…7c61backed No | 66c | 232.77$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…befabacked No | 77c | 224.66$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 36c | 191$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked No | 53c | 186.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 48c | 184.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 30c | 183.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…d345backed Yes | 43c | 136.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 51c | 120.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 30c | 106.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…169ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…28a7backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 69c | 74.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 72.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x492d…2f04backed Yes | 53c | 56.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked No | 64c | 47.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…273bbacked No | 65c | 46.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…264abacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…fa78backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 64c | 20.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.