China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5665d82505c7bd71cd34b7939f1f6dfa033a5864d03669a9388f48cb62f00fde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,631$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 424.49$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 26c | 311.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 5c | 302.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…0913backed Yes | 78c | 287.61$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 76c | 225.55$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…ede1backed Yes | 52c | 188.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed No | 42c | 172.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 11c | 169.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd792…94d0backed Yes | 64c | 150.65$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdf…2df0backed Yes | 20c | 148.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…c33fbacked No | 66c | 145.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 32c | 131.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 58c | 103.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a77…c39bbacked No | 77c | 100.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 18c | 95.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed Yes | 15c | 94.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 56c | 90.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 88.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 72c | 88.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed No | 68c | 86.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 27c | 78.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…5013backed Yes | 62c | 73.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d5…43dcbacked Yes | 73c | 68.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…da91backed Yes | 55c | 65.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 61.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked No | 76c | 56.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5334…1a3fbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…ac7abacked Yes | 52c | 48.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…c349backed Yes | 72c | 41.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4459…5191backed Yes | 66c | 37.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed No | 42c | 34.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1510…2402backed No | 65c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 58c | 28.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde2…3fcfbacked Yes | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed No | 80c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…9794backed No | 78c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…cbffbacked Yes | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May?this page
- Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 190-200mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 200-210mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 210-220mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?Yes won
- Will Hong Kong have between 230-240mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have less than 180mm of precipitation in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.