China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x112f51f4ee9cd61349ba5074979291ba023d9765306f35f927505c179a6d224e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 66c | 827.16$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 16c | 808.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 4c | 642$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 37c | 547.49$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 60c | 463$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 22c | 311.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 46c | 310.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 278.41$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 71c | 233.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 72c | 220$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 23c | 212.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +336.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 203$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 8c | 196.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 45c | 178.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 27c | 147.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 73c | 141.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 8c | 137.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +546.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 115.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…190dbacked Yes | 12c | 92.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d7…1891backed Yes | 22c | 90.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +353.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 86.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 69c | 71.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 59.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 54.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…1b63backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 76c | 39.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 36.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 31.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 16.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 78c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?this page
- Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 190-200mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 200-210mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 210-220mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 230-240mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have less than 180mm of precipitation in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.