China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have between 230-240mm of precipitation in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee19f66ee43815862cbd66d9cdeedf0594515aa8cb3eba28e5f51487f0f4b6e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 73c | 879$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 4c | 739.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 660.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 454.07$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed Yes | 4c | 327.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 11c | 311.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 268$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 239$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 19c | 93.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 34c | 60.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 51.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 47.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa570…9349backed Yes | 62c | 25.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 40c | 25.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 18.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have between 230-240mm of precipitation in May?this page
- Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 190-200mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 200-210mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 210-220mm of precipitation in May?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?Yes won
- Will Hong Kong have less than 180mm of precipitation in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.