Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaef8912f1cadb917add8435dfec7003e97ec80c5184c561f3a6a7e33b7766a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x819d…6e9cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,157$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 67c | 1,084$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.35 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 61c | 590.16$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.68 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…b12fbacked No | 10c | 486.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 33c | 440.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.73 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 60c | 346.3$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.45 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 229$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.32 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 19c | 194.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 60c | 179.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked No | 9c | 168.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 14c | 149.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 37c | 148.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked No | 41c | 142.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 133.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 39c | 122.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 113.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 104.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 97.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed Yes | 32c | 69.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 63c | 46.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 43.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 66c | 42.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…982cbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 49c | 38.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…51fdbacked No | 60c | 28.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 40c | 25.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 383 | 29.8%114 W · 269 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…1afebacked Yes | 60c | 24.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 78c | 24.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 63c | 23.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed No | 61c | 22.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 59c | 22.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 68c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Cody Gakpo win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Erling Haaland win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Jude Bellingham win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Julián Álvarez win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappé win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Nick Woltemade win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Raphinha win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Romelu Lukaku win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.