NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe560f99a061fbba55041f333b60aa7b75d6b5d4925dced2808cfc222bcc6ed22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 0c | 227,769$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.77 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…20b4backed Under | 24c | 2,861$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 77c | 1,301$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.79 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Under | 24c | 980.78$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137a…140dbacked Over | 76c | 720.54$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 71c | 547.79$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Under | 36c | 541.26$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a5…b591backed Under | 26c | 511$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 76c | 499.99$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 75c | 360$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 74c | 347.06$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…ba67backed Over | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Over | 59c | 212.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 30c | 207.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Under | 25c | 196.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 20c | 181.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 76c | 165.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 76c | 134.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 75c | 126.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 75c | 106.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Over | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 24c | 80.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…1d03backed Over | 74c | 69.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Over | 78c | 54.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Under | 24c | 50.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a4…0ea6backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Under | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccba…d0cebacked Under | 24c | 45.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Under | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…437fbacked Over | 77c | 40.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 59c | 32.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…c5a9backed Over | 78c | 32.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Over | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 65c | 21.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 60c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Over | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. CanadiensHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.