Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ed436f47bc3e7f4282da98ce3bc2fca15903a974cf179a20aad86d1cc1ec21f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GamerLegionof GamerLegion, 4 Anchors and Ilmeria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e20…e3c8backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 18c | 1,875$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 22c | 1,228$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.45 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed GamerLegion | 76c | 800.11$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.39 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 8c | 761.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed GamerLegion | 80c | 530$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked GamerLegion | 79c | 364.49$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…8440backed GamerLegion | 79c | 323.09$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 7c | 296.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…8bbdbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 29c | 211.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed GamerLegion | 78c | 201.23$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d90…42bebacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 22c | 185.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 21c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…e6e6backed 4 Anchors and Ilmeria | 24c | 46.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed GamerLegion | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed GamerLegion | 76c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 524 | 50.8%266 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed GamerLegion | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…c227backed GamerLegion | 78c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed GamerLegion | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGamerLegion won
- Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 WinnerGamerLegion won
- Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 WinnerGamerLegion won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.