Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5db16034e71346b463abe2867c729abea3ab932c251abf95468ebfef11940ad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRGof NRG, XLG Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked XLG Gaming | 56c | 1,377$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.82 | 153 | 43.8%67 W · 86 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed NRG | 50c | 1,131$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.47 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…93edbacked NRG | 41c | 1,131$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.08 | 181 | 48.1%87 W · 94 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed XLG Gaming | 59c | 1,100$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.85 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed NRG | 45c | 1,000$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 136 | 42.6%58 W · 78 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…d3c7backed NRG | 44c | 726.94$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.09 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed XLG Gaming | 55c | 716.96$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked XLG Gaming | 55c | 656$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed NRG | 46c | 582.66$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.56 | 260 | 51.9%135 W · 125 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked NRG | 45c | 497.64$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.7 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked NRG | 44c | 481.59$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.69 | 361 | 38.5%139 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked XLG Gaming | 52c | 422.72$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 785 | 62.8%493 W · 292 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed XLG Gaming | 56c | 324.57$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.71 | 391 | 66%258 W · 133 L | +24.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked NRG | 44c | 290$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdc…778abacked NRG | 45c | 267$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.85 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed XLG Gaming | 56c | 239.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked NRG | 45c | 226.92$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked XLG Gaming | 51c | 211.02$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed XLG Gaming | 43c | 210$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…b7a7backed NRG | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…10fdbacked XLG Gaming | 51c | 145$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed XLG Gaming | 37c | 110.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab0…0d18backed NRG | 43c | 106.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…8149backed XLG Gaming | 46c | 106.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed NRG | 60c | 100.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 196 | 56.6%111 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…d801backed NRG | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…1ad3backed XLG Gaming | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea86…6fb4backed NRG | 45c | 98.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked XLG Gaming | 44c | 82.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 407 | 31.7%129 W · 278 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…0debbacked NRG | 50c | 80.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed XLG Gaming | 47c | 76.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…ecffbacked NRG | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed XLG Gaming | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked XLG Gaming | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…9a00backed NRG | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…cd33backed NRG | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 434 | 59.2%257 W · 177 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed XLG Gaming | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…523bbacked XLG Gaming | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…97fcbacked NRG | 47c | 40.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…abb3backed NRG | 55c | 37.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8407…4589backed XLG Gaming | 45c | 37.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed XLG Gaming | 55c | 36.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed NRG | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed XLG Gaming | 58c | 34.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed XLG Gaming | 56c | 32.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 257 | 61.1%157 W · 100 L | +22.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…c997backed XLG Gaming | 58c | 30.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked XLG Gaming | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed XLG Gaming | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 439 | 43.7%192 W · 247 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fa…a8f4backed NRG | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5Over won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group StageNRG won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 1 WinnerNRG won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 WinnerNRG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.