Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Garin (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c02d3a0223530d7f794f35c117569f7d8cc32ecbd2bad9e102e7c3d095d019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Garin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Garin | 49c | 1,277$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.59 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Tien | 51c | 1,100$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.43 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Tien | 50c | 1,097$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.3 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Garin | 50c | 708.17$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.13 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Tien | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Garin | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Garin | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Tien | 45c | 216.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…0e56backed Tien | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 283 | 50.5%143 W · 140 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Garin | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Tien | 49c | 198.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 154 | 40.9%63 W · 91 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Garin | 51c | 188.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…4b27backed Tien | 50c | 157.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Garin | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Garin | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Garin | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Garin | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…8e72backed Tien | 48c | 99.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…1713backed Tien | 48c | 96.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Garin | 52c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 155 | 31.6%49 W · 106 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Garin | 28c | 76.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Tien | 72c | 76.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8a…03bdbacked Tien | 48c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Tien | 49c | 66.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Garin | 53c | 55.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Garin | 52c | 42.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Tien | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Tien | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Garin | 43c | 24.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Tien | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Tien | 63c | 24.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Garin | 49c | 24.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…f376backed Tien | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Garin (+1.5)this page
- Cristian Garin vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Garin vs. Tien: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner TienLearner Tien won
- Set 1 Winner: Garin vs TienTien won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.