Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor reach $6 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee0e1c4242f1f953bb0a4e7cec67e6683627e9efc39b2298522060d8c59d7ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 61c | 82,507$50,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,722.96 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 39c | 50,800$19,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,132.14 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes | 39c | 27,216$10,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,580.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +1,231.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Yes | 74c | 2,600$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,401$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,246$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.15 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 51c | 1,005$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.87 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 549$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +152%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 9c | 463.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed No | 64c | 377.5$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.38 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1807…aef3backed No | 5c | 375.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 39c | 299.69$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.06 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 11c | 215.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…b6debacked No | 64c | 147.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 16c | 133$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 36c | 129$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 37c | 95.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4eed…216fbacked No | 66c | 92.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 48c | 80.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8064…8a15backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc896…9069backed Yes | 53c | 71.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…20b2backed Yes | 65c | 67.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 20c | 65.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…38c4backed No | 72c | 57.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…4047backed No | 64c | 51.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb463…a5b5backed No | 68c | 51.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…6ddabacked Yes | 69c | 30.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed No | 64c | 27.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…bd4ebacked Yes | 78c | 22.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…b8a1backed No | 72c | 20.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 64c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 63c | 19.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor reach $6 in April?this page
- Will Opendoor dip to $3.50 in April?No won
- Will Opendoor dip to $4 in April?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $5 in April?Yes won
- Will Opendoor reach $5.50 in April?Yes won
- Will Opendoor reach $6.75 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.