Music · resolved market
Will North West release an album by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6144b242a6e941b4654346187a861ee11a97f23e73066bbdd320937fb6f2592b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 3c | 7,726$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.71 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 74c | 2,591$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.75 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed No | 30c | 2,531$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 74c | 1,486$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 9c | 956.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked Yes | 70c | 861$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 70c | 842$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 70c | 828$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 26c | 770$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 26c | 716$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 38c | 632.6$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No | 23c | 571$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 77c | 571$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 51c | 530.96$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 78c | 505$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 22c | 505$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 23c | 253.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 27c | 217.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 65c | 211$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 35c | 211$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 27c | 181$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 24c | 87.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 24c | 78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…6feebacked No | 29c | 49.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 60c | 49.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…c25cbacked No | 39c | 42.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 67c | 29.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 58c | 28.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 76c | 28.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5249…723ebacked Yes | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will North West release an album by December 31?this page
- Will North West release an album by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.