TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden State Valkyriesof Golden State Valkyries, New York Liberty
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,876
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$215,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,876 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed New York Liberty70c95,263$66,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,683.998937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Golden State Valkyries31c47,279$14,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,644.1522748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Golden State Valkyries30c30,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Golden State Valkyries28c18,843$5,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,564.7523245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed New York Liberty73c18,398$13,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,430.6213950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Golden State Valkyries38c12,955$4,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,988.111,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked New York Liberty69c12,663$8,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,737.543842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Golden State Valkyries77c7,080$5,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.2599548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Liberty30c6,934$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.491,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked New York Liberty0c5,104$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Golden State Valkyries31c3,015$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.134829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Golden State Valkyries56c2,736$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.1726247.7%125 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Golden State Valkyries53c2,051$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.8216152.2%84 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Golden State Valkyries27c2,000$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.061050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed New York Liberty44c2,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8907259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed New York Liberty32c1,927$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.3531043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed New York Liberty52c1,845$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9509354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked New York Liberty41c1,669$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.236750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Golden State Valkyries30c1,667$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.665044%22 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Liberty35c1,609$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.350646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Golden State Valkyries30c1,333$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.334652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Golden State Valkyries57c1,300$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.86746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked Golden State Valkyries80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2503073.3%22 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked New York Liberty2c1,221$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.038228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed New York Liberty49c1,097$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5404461.4%27 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed New York Liberty35c1,084$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.3219428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7906…be5dbacked New York Liberty73c1,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Golden State Valkyries25c999.97$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.9813024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19bd…ae36backed Golden State Valkyries40c992.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Golden State Valkyries46c964.23$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.214847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Golden State Valkyries55c858.81$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.4626147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Golden State Valkyries62c820.18$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.8285158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Golden State Valkyries46c816.16$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.795250%26 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed New York Liberty46c666.44$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.0412745.7%58 W · 69 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Golden State Valkyries30c644.11$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.8846247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Golden State Valkyries27c615.51$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.326549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Golden State Valkyries52c561$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.951752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed New York Liberty70c534.92$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.445862.1%36 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Golden State Valkyries27c525.3$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.472650%13 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x987e…8d7abacked Golden State Valkyries58c520.69$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.695461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Golden State Valkyries41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2954027.5%11 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked New York Liberty70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Golden State Valkyries65c499.99$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x162c…d511backed Golden State Valkyries27c497.59$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+85.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed New York Liberty32c481.88$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.726237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked New York Liberty40c454.08$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.513528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked Golden State Valkyries33c453.8$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+152.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Golden State Valkyries31c425.81$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.811942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1491…11d3backed New York Liberty43c391.28$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.261675%12 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed New York Liberty34c358.12$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.57955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0167…d002backed Golden State Valkyries28c353.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.833053.3%16 W · 14 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick32cpaid+68.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0f43…3ec1backed Golden State Valkyries80c350$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70650%3 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked New York Liberty38c333.19$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6223955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Golden State Valkyries31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.589635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Golden State Valkyries25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Golden State Valkyries29c297.94$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.0718844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed New York Liberty40c295.1$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb8…76b4backed New York Liberty75c282.45$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21120%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked New York Liberty37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Golden State Valkyries79c253.61$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.611190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick64cpaid+42.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed New York Liberty47c228.62$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6361042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Liberty39c225.57$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8689349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Golden State Valkyries64c219.66$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1513358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New York Liberty32c218$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.737650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…7e3dbacked New York Liberty19c209.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed New York Liberty28c205$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.425246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Golden State Valkyries27c204.47$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.267240.3%29 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked New York Liberty69c202.22$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010249%50 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Golden State Valkyries48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1043732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Golden State Valkyries65c195$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2315250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a8…5de1backed New York Liberty51c194.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc668…0a90backed Golden State Valkyries27c190$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.72347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Golden State Valkyries25c188.27$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.2813422.4%30 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee4d…5413backed Golden State Valkyries46c170$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac7…3ef9backed Golden State Valkyries32c168.19$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.372740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed New York Liberty59c167.6$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.696127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5ec5…4168backed Golden State Valkyries61c164.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.951855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3044…834bbacked New York Liberty21c159.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+99.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed New York Liberty37c159.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2614942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb69e…7270backed New York Liberty22c139.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…1856backed New York Liberty25c136.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.831250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34cc…d703backed Golden State Valkyries77c130.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x961a…e91cbacked Golden State Valkyries31c129.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.03837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a63…ceabbacked Golden State Valkyries31c125.72$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.629146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1449…a618backed Golden State Valkyries23c120.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Golden State Valkyries26c119.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.552944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cc…2296backed New York Liberty74c107.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Golden State Valkyries29c103.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.627045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed New York Liberty35c100.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3336454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed New York Liberty73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7317143.9%75 W · 96 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6858…7d47backed Golden State Valkyries27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+76.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Golden State Valkyries27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7321337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked New York Liberty77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked New York Liberty73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7312144.6%54 W · 67 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf808…742dbacked Golden State Valkyries27c98.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.132634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Golden State Valkyries61c98.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.368860.2%53 W · 35 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Golden State Valkyries56c95.64$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9237850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1f…9ef1backed New York Liberty21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Liberty35c90.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6730347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Liberty31c86.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8819458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.