TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x162c…d511

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Asian League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Asian League at 57 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+145.4%+$42.74
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.39
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
England vs. Argentina: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.33
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.75
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.05
Spain vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.5
France vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.46
Argentina vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$32.3
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40.48
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$706Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$302.72
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$547.55
Colombia leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$636Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$635.98
Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,143Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$676.87
Argentina leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Portugal leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$119.8
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.83
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.5
Belgium leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$17
All 19 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Asian League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Jeju SK FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$238
Gimcheon Sangmu FC leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$32.1
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-07-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$62.66
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$47.54
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 0 - 0 Zhejiang Zhiye FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.92
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.52
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+84.5%+$25.38
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$9.93
Yunnan Yukun FC leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.69
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: Draw at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+50.5%+$10.97
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$10.11
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.76
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$153.78
All 13 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$345.05
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$151
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.26
All 3 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 10.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$505.53
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$77.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+85.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Libertybacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+271.3%+$363.59
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$715Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$714.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharksbacked Beijing Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$499.8
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopardsbacked Shenzhen Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.03
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$74.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$907Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$906.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.