Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb807bf43caf9a87643992221e7c7ed21e501c5b032b177f5930fedfc58019d74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 7,108$4,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.84 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Over | 50c | 1,968$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -41%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 1,700$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.12 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Over | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 37c | 1,324$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.38 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…563dbacked Under | 63c | 702.68$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +84%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 47c | 522.16$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.09 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 64c | 360$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 74c | 271.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…22d8backed Under | 52c | 202.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…e4d1backed Over | 57c | 184.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 175$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 147.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 19c | 123.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…5978backed Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 64c | 108$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4e…e08fbacked Under | 49c | 101.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 150 | 35.3%53 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…2d85backed Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…0c9bbacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…c5d4backed Over | 42c | 66.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…d511backed Over | 32c | 57.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 42c | 41.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 56c | 40.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Over | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 55c | 32.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…35d0backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 63c | 30.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 43c | 23.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.7wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Under | 62c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…d118backed Under | 67c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)Zhejiang Zhiye FC won
- Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.