Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x204126968acdf994a775376ebf21bf10c3f2a100cbcf57d848e03695496eb170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Over | 70c | 6,094$4,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.04 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 33c | 2,887$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.91 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 2,255$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.24 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d5…53bfbacked Under | 50c | 1,171$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cf…0e7cbacked Over | 39c | 689$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 560.47$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 39c | 444.26$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 58c | 320.14$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 52c | 282.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.69 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 37c | 192.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 60c | 182.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Under | 45c | 175.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd2…9a46backed Over | 37c | 163.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 54c | 155.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 31c | 145.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 138.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…e4d1backed Over | 73c | 127$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 74c | 109.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…22d8backed Under | 26c | 94.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Over | 73c | 94.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 35c | 80.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…89ebbacked Under | 37c | 79.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…0c9bbacked Over | 72c | 69.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 44c | 55.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…daf7backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…35d0backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 53c | 38.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 40c | 30.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 65c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 61c | 20.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)Zhejiang Zhiye FC won
- Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.