Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,400 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9295c841162c88d26bf3c6ba40bccae391f764c6d4e37dd15dec8b1c88bd999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…682fbacked Yes | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…26efbacked No | 25c | 398.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 39c | 225.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…cdc4backed Yes | 30c | 219.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked No | 55c | 187.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 10c | 112.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed Yes | 27c | 107.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Yes | 38c | 103.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…5f34backed Yes | 79c | 68.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 60.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 53.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 41c | 50.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 43c | 43.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…f344backed Yes | 47c | 40.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 52c | 34.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd74f…005fbacked Yes | 63c | 30.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…dd0abacked Yes | 68c | 29.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 52c | 25.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…931dbacked Yes | 45c | 23.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 48c | 22.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 60c | 21.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b2…2a8dbacked Yes | 57c | 21.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1083…be16backed Yes | 78c | 16.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…4b88backed No | 79c | 12.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,400 in March?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,400-$6,500 in March?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$6,600 in March?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,600-$6,700 in March?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in March?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in March?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.