Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$6,600 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0797893aff1784bfcb9edca6f9edf8758a7864a6f1af6b3a375ece1ac1584c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 45c | 1,636$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.02 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 56c | 961.61$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.51 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…d5a8backed No | 72c | 737.65$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…9ce1backed Yes | 28c | 737.65$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…775bbacked No | 73c | 432.75$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3c90backed Yes | 27c | 432.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 41c | 226$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 26c | 186.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493f…3c26backed No | 71c | 158.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…c000backed Yes | 29c | 158.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…34cebacked Yes | 16c | 123.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…dc56backed Yes | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…aa5ebacked Yes | 32c | 92.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 17c | 83.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 49.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 29c | 37.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$6,600 in March?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,400-$6,500 in March?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,600-$6,700 in March?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in March?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in March?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in March?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,400 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.