UFC · resolved market
Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89ad2d3d5d40fe5f0b768e57509af6aca018b5f402b82b6cf8a38b4d0695c2d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b9e…18e7backed Yes | 68c | 830.66$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 21c | 724.7$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 73c | 609.63$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe946…0459backed Yes | 51c | 554.17$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed No | 59c | 421.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 24c | 334.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 52c | 299.91$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 52c | 289.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed No | 25c | 201.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…c07cbacked No | 21c | 167.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…f67dbacked Yes | 74c | 163.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked No | 27c | 150.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 24c | 148.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…e7cabacked Yes | 48c | 147.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 110 | 78.2%86 W · 24 L | +15.6wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…c356backed Yes | 78c | 128.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73f…0126backed Yes | 80c | 121.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…ae8dbacked Yes | 76c | 117.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 24c | 116.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 35c | 111.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 48c | 100.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…94f6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed No | 30c | 85.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 31c | 80.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 58c | 78.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Yes | 47c | 77.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 62c | 77.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed No | 41c | 69.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +189%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a57…231cbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 28c | 42.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 69c | 40.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 50c | 38.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +130%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 75c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…ea25backed No | 70c | 28.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 28.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 71c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c43…70d2backed Yes | 77c | 27.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next?this page
- Will Jorge Masvidal fight Conor McGregor next?No won
- Will Michael Chandler fight Conor McGregor next?No won
- Will Nate Diaz fight Conor McGregor next?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.