UFC · resolved market
Will Nate Diaz fight Conor McGregor next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x073fe781b888918dd97d8b912158cad8b320d6272d9c4e669b308a58c3dcb316
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb953…9f58backed No | 72c | 201.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…d4c8backed No | 72c | 201.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8626…acc2backed No | 72c | 201.08$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…4f82backed No | 72c | 200.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…6a9fbacked No | 72c | 200.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…db7ebacked No | 72c | 199.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…6f34backed No | 72c | 199.73$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…0907backed No | 72c | 198.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…ea22backed No | 72c | 198.57$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…dd5fbacked No | 72c | 198.46$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…f99dbacked No | 72c | 198.46$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…4bc6backed No | 72c | 197.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…f72ebacked No | 72c | 197.21$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa908…d716backed No | 72c | 196.7$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…0f5bbacked No | 72c | 196.7$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…2df3backed No | 72c | 196.63$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e35…beabbacked No | 72c | 196.28$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfd…72debacked No | 73c | 195.5$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…d55cbacked No | 73c | 195.05$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…b786backed No | 73c | 194.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914f…e477backed No | 73c | 194.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…69cbbacked No | 73c | 194.68$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ec08backed No | 73c | 194.61$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…f9e0backed No | 73c | 194.61$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…e22ebacked No | 73c | 194.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…f54fbacked No | 73c | 194.36$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfd…f70ebacked No | 72c | 194.31$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…60dcbacked No | 72c | 194.3$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…251ebacked No | 73c | 194.19$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…fcdcbacked No | 72c | 194.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…2dfebacked No | 73c | 193.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f58…7becbacked No | 72c | 193.39$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…fc15backed No | 73c | 193.31$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…85e6backed No | 73c | 193.11$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…d110backed No | 73c | 193.04$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…43fbbacked No | 72c | 193.03$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…0b41backed No | 72c | 192.58$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…28aebacked No | 72c | 192.4$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…39dabacked No | 73c | 192.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…7b54backed No | 73c | 191.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…110ebacked No | 73c | 191.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…d589backed No | 72c | 191.52$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…d448backed No | 72c | 191.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…e080backed No | 73c | 191.13$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…3ef9backed No | 73c | 191.08$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…8e97backed No | 73c | 190.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…ff81backed No | 72c | 189.89$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…b722backed No | 72c | 189.62$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…76f2backed No | 72c | 189.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca45…8af9backed No | 72c | 188.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e27…a24cbacked No | 72c | 188.8$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…efadbacked No | 72c | 187.7$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…a834backed No | 72c | 187.66$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8602…fd48backed No | 72c | 187.17$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f1…3b22backed No | 72c | 186.64$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1494…0593backed No | 72c | 186.59$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b26…10c6backed No | 72c | 184.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…3057backed No | 72c | 183.07$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…a4ccbacked No | 72c | 183.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 73c | 142$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 78c | 70.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b09…e3d3backed No | 72c | 45.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nate Diaz fight Conor McGregor next?this page
- Will Jorge Masvidal fight Conor McGregor next?No won
- Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next?Yes won
- Will Michael Chandler fight Conor McGregor next?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.