UFC · resolved market
Will Michael Chandler fight Conor McGregor next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e6f8d9c049598d55e7b7ea2e0ff3729a6f75d39716f08f4e1fa32c186d79530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb83…f67dbacked Yes | 28c | 423.76$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1469…3a8abacked No | 74c | 192.9$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca45…8af9backed No | 74c | 192.83$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…ef9ebacked No | 74c | 191.36$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…13f0backed No | 74c | 191.24$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7a…f3d6backed No | 74c | 189.85$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd7…934abacked No | 74c | 188.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…9becbacked No | 74c | 187.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…1819backed No | 74c | 185.17$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…a5a4backed No | 74c | 185.01$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff6…2ff7backed No | 74c | 182.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…249bbacked No | 74c | 177.57$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…e0fcbacked No | 74c | 172.28$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b09…e3d3backed No | 74c | 170.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…4bc6backed No | 74c | 168.51$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd07f…8302backed No | 74c | 164.91$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 61c | 111.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 79c | 51.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michael Chandler fight Conor McGregor next?this page
- Will Jorge Masvidal fight Conor McGregor next?No won
- Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next?Yes won
- Will Nate Diaz fight Conor McGregor next?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.