WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcba7e41ff3afcbbc36ad7b4898e0c66828c295f8d55e99946c4b465621b8982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Stormof Seattle Storm, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm | 45c | 614.31$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.83 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Connecticut Sun | 55c | 311.12$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.11 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Connecticut Sun | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 277.2$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.37 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Connecticut Sun | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Connecticut Sun | 55c | 269.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +11.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Seattle Storm | 49c | 269$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Seattle Storm | 55c | 249.88$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 247.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun | 14c | 91.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Connecticut Sun | 53c | 84.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Connecticut Sun | 46c | 57.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 26.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 26.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Seattle Storm | 47c | 25.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Seattle Storm | 57c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…6047backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 20.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Connecticut Sun | 56c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Storm | 77c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5)this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle StormSeattle Storm won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 164.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 165.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 166.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-1.5)Seattle Storm won
- Spread: Seattle Storm (-3.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.