Chess · resolved market
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dea0feb2ba85cf35b9dfcb28aa857d27c9f067f58e3f7c0c78801142cf711c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes | 44c | 357$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.55 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 48c | 299.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 61c | 245.27$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 42c | 89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…0720backed Yes | 27c | 74.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 31.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 55c | 31.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 23.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 69c | 22.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vincent Keymer win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?No won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?No won
- Will Jorden Van Foreest win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.