Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x720293cf3700eedfa1b6046d00ae705f748b89fb36beb03c1cdfd5a4277ec4bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 48c | 317.36$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.03 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…84eabacked Yes | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 212.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…6afebacked No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 51c | 200.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd723…25bfbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…3bedbacked No | 47c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 68.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…1281backed Yes | 28c | 62.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…0ca7backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 49.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…2ea2backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes | 51c | 43.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 53c | 39.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…0fe1backed No | 48c | 38.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…3fdbbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in May?this page
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in May?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in May?Yes won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in May?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.