Movies · resolved market
Will "Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xced81f8d4047131246e3df3f1ca249a4d6c068fa8e796615f185a55ba054d8ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 29c | 10,007$2,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,112.89 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 69c | 6,615$4,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,558.39 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,428$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.17 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 41c | 1,267$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.98 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 1,137$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.43 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 26c | 1,013$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.26 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 929.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 571$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f3…f031backed Yes | 9c | 563.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +357.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 44c | 531$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.69 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 65c | 505.79$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.89 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 440$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 336.48$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.75 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 336.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bd…f180backed Yes | 16c | 332.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 75c | 290.03$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 28c | 253.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 5c | 230.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 183.04$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 155.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 12c | 85.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 62c | 72.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 62.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 67c | 51.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 51.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 49.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 36.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 80c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aed…9d4ebacked Yes | 68c | 24.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…dff3backed Yes | 51c | 21.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 17.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Tires: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.