Movies · resolved market
Will "Tires: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b69c0e08e335e9faea5fc0446d09b85ffc739dc3f16addca3a33591331097ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 33c | 4,243$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.18 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 17c | 4,159$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,451.23 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 75c | 3,162$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.64 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…7f22backed No | 11c | 1,461$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +213.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 1,219$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.11 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 11c | 1,000$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 848.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.05 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 14c | 778.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.52 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 10c | 564.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +161%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 481.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.21 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 8c | 443.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.39 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 439.8$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 10c | 394.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 7c | 375.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.61 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 4c | 346.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 17c | 332.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.72 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 315.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.29 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 59c | 304$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 13c | 303$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +668.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 14c | 298.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 20c | 292.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.88 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 34c | 284.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 7c | 275.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,332.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 47c | 247.45$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 14c | 241.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 11c | 222$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 9c | 218$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…c885backed No | 19c | 192$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +420.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 157$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 17c | 156.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.67 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 46c | 142.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 136.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 10c | 135$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 110.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…cd2fbacked No | 13c | 108$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 10c | 107.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 20c | 105.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 11c | 92.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 26c | 83.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 13c | 75.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…db2bbacked No | 20c | 62.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +389.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed No | 75c | 52.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked No | 41c | 49.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 47c | 44.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 43.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 72c | 39.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 75c | 29.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 76c | 18.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Tires: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Yes won
- Will "The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.