Token Launches · resolved market
Over $50M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe705c4c2824558eb62101d9e3f9ed003c70313ccded8300cb4cc9650dcdb615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1da0…2ea6backed Yes | 15c | 7,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 70c | 1,409$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.68 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Yes | 30c | 1,121$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.29 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.1wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 814.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 28c | 812.38$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.28 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…c9a5backed Yes | 5c | 734.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 691.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 11c | 485.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 38c | 452.06$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 16c | 399.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed Yes | 13c | 388.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 14c | 349.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fa…7c51backed Yes | 10c | 348.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…ffc9backed No | 51c | 307.28$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 32cpaid | +187.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 67c | 298.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 5c | 296.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…7fcbbacked Yes | 44c | 230$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…354ebacked Yes | 11c | 227.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 200.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…fd72backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.4wins | +0.27per pick | 15cpaid | +220.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 16c | 190$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 135.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 28c | 114.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…0409backed Yes | 40c | 112.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…5d40backed Yes | 30c | 75.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf56…50e7backed No | 68c | 69.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed No | 72c | 56.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 30c | 56.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…0217backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…d9cfbacked Yes | 40c | 48.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…56f8backed Yes | 28c | 40.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…eefebacked No | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…7ba1backed Yes | 47c | 32.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 50c | 30.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 76c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…b04cbacked Yes | 40c | 27.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 47c | 25.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…a0abbacked No | 75c | 22.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…e141backed No | 74c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $50M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $12M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $16M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $18M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $1M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No won
- Over $45M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.