Dota2 · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b5dfc5b3d155f7f736d601d101b0d024f771f9b51a474d4da82c001f2c1924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 47c | 1,092$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.28 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 52c | 576.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 55c | 274.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Under | 54c | 91.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Under | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Over | 33c | 64.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 55c | 61.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 54c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852f…9be0backed Over | 65c | 38.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Over | 38c | 29.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Under | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.