Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc265cf4f5d3a3e592a0a417768f6f4564e27d64439b89426f10f46668a127c29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 9,040$4,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700.95 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 43c | 4,100$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.04 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,541$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.66 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.2 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 1,286$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.74 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 46c | 1,100$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.83 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…e620backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Over | 48c | 931.44$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.53 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Under | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 52c | 761.76$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.37 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 53c | 549.2$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.18 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Under | 47c | 510.03$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.3 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…8bc9backed Over | 48c | 499.97$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 63c | 458.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.79 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 53c | 445.3$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.83 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…1e9fbacked Over | 48c | 416.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf850…c756backed Over | 47c | 307.85$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…4c19backed Over | 49c | 282.04$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 48c | 264.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.34 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…280bbacked Over | 48c | 259.13$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 55c | 222.68$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked Over | 48c | 124.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Under | 60c | 114.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4771backed Over | 44c | 111.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…e96ebacked Under | 52c | 108.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 48c | 104.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b5…a3b5backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 47c | 101.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 54c | 88.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 46c | 87.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 56c | 84.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Under | 53c | 77.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…fb31backed Over | 48c | 67.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a16…6d55backed Under | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3793…8f46backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…24abbacked Over | 50c | 57.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f1…9d60backed Over | 48c | 50.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 34c | 48.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 48c | 39.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Under | 36c | 38.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Under | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 30.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed2…f444backed Over | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…ffd3backed Under | 53c | 21.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Under | 53c | 21.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9979…c5bdbacked Under | 53c | 21.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…bed7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.