Ukraine · resolved market
Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5205cc7e0bea81f9bb6243aa63fa3abf9065f3a7e369b55df9325402cea5cc1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked No | 35c | 1,119$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.34 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 830.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a23…66efbacked Yes | 79c | 543$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 4c | 523.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ca…fc0dbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…1fc0backed No | 13c | 458.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 65c | 401.93$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.38 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…f4f2backed No | 33c | 300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed Yes | 54c | 207.42$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 199$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…d246backed No | 61c | 195.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed No | 8c | 148.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed No | 8c | 133.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Yes | 69c | 128.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 16c | 127.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…4708backed Yes | 20c | 108.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…12f4backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…1479backed No | 45c | 97.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed No | 11c | 96.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…aa99backed Yes | 15c | 86.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 23cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 81.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…8e9bbacked Yes | 75c | 72.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a9…d021backed Yes | 75c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…53e9backed No | 24c | 61.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…c79abacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ac…f897backed No | 38c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…afa3backed No | 80c | 28.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 73c | 23.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 72c | 15.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by August 31?this page
- Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.