Ukraine · resolved market
Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa7f1b37853eec207983ae8303999dc86a5021fdadc883479d53cd766c23e0e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 12c | 1,414$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,130$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…f676backed Yes | 9c | 911.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4196…f997backed Yes | 11c | 817.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +151.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3403…f041backed Yes | 16c | 691.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 593.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…2988backed Yes | 12c | 429.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb5…98f8backed No | 67c | 385.81$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268d…4820backed Yes | 11c | 290.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5057backed Yes | 11c | 275.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 220.41$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 192$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 12c | 189.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3339…f1b3backed Yes | 11c | 181.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…aa99backed Yes | 13c | 167.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 23cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…bf7fbacked Yes | 12c | 159.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed Yes | 10c | 134$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by July 31?this page
- Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by August 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.