Space · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 major space weather events this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd21d1d3c6b4d49604579047281507a081f2e029db483f1eb1bc2174ecf7a17fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda7…7b78backed No | 1c | 7,226$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 47c | 200.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…ef1ebacked No | 36c | 194.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…e7dcbacked No | 53c | 184.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…6b87backed Yes | 46c | 106.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 59.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed No | 57c | 59.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…76c8backed Yes | 36c | 52.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 44c | 51.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 54c | 42.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 39c | 26.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 48c | 23.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 52c | 23.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 major space weather events this week?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 major space weather event this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.