Fifa International · resolved market
Will Belgium win the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe341c598c5add37d9268060c9d162fafc3121b5422b262ff8aefd003daea397c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 1c | 100,142$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.77 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 99,103$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.35 | 263 | 30%79 W · 184 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 4c | 1,652$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,641$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,599$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…01f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,070$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…0a7fbacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…5aeebacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 5c | 357$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium win the World Cup?this page
- Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.