Fifa International · resolved market
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c55d9ef4531348409c7b1717d6dd11d1655a731e014610683fc56a8afecad14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed Yes | 18c | 2,798$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.77 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…b501backed Yes | 24c | 2,139$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…0f35backed Yes | 21c | 1,576$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 1,493$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.01 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 79c | 677$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.51 | 311 | 52.7%164 W · 147 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 569.74$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 79c | 500$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 5c | 347.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…e24abacked Yes | 10c | 307.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 21c | 304$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 79c | 274.15$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…034cbacked Yes | 21c | 241.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 221.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 14c | 203.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed Yes | 14c | 178.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 19c | 177$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 79c | 146.18$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…37edbacked Yes | 21c | 144.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 139.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 20c | 125.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 106.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 87.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 20c | 69.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 20c | 51.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…59abbacked Yes | 20c | 51.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 27.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 340 | 35%119 W · 221 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 27.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 342 | 38.6%132 W · 210 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 18.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 78c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?this page
- Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Belgium win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.