CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MTX vs Hermine Esports Club (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4579118ccf6427965212a3e8df0e1be16994d8fa4c45cefb51f345e9e25ab7ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hermine Esports Clubof MTX, Hermine Esports Club
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d7…2485backed MTX | 1c | 1,495$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…9e66backed Hermine Esports Club | 66c | 515.02$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked MTX | 74c | 411.92$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.47 | 324 | 63%204 W · 120 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c557backed Hermine Esports Club | 43c | 136$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MTX | 44c | 109.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Hermine Esports Club | 38c | 92.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 190 | 35.8%68 W · 122 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Hermine Esports Club | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed MTX | 56c | 51.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked MTX | 74c | 50.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed MTX | 42c | 41.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked MTX | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed MTX | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Hermine Esports Club | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed Hermine Esports Club | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.