Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa52701396fc89c9fee94a06edcc1daa1541eff6e266cc6ae435fde3e273b70cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 73c | 12,500$9,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.79 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 27c | 9,802$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.66 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 72c | 7,014$5,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.93 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 31c | 5,272$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.3 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 69c | 4,699$3,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.35 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 28c | 3,508$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.66 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 28c | 3,331$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.86 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked No | 33c | 2,042$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.73 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed No | 31c | 1,469$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 70c | 1,034$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.47 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 69c | 994.04$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.92 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 29c | 799.9$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.49 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 28c | 498.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 72c | 487$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 28c | 408.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 16c | 383.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd6…ca34backed No | 30c | 322.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked No | 25c | 313$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14bc…3904backed Yes | 73c | 298.4$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 69c | 266.4$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 29c | 257.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 28c | 221.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 70c | 199.65$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 29c | 189.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 71c | 171.81$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 28c | 164.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed Yes | 73c | 161.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 71c | 148.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Yes | 70c | 141.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…100dbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 29c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 73c | 104.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…920dbacked Yes | 70c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 71c | 73.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…32a1backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed No | 15c | 66.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 17c | 59.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 28c | 57.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Yes | 71c | 52.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d03…9d52backed Yes | 73c | 49.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Yes | 58c | 47.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked No | 29c | 45.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…ca69backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Yes | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 72c | 41.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a7…270fbacked Yes | 73c | 40.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked No | 29c | 38.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Yes | 70c | 37.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Yes | 62c | 36.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed No | 28c | 35.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 69c | 34.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…5668backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…1b80backed Yes | 73c | 32.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 69c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…7a69backed Yes | 68c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 66c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…0ee1backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…0986backed Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…ca58backed Yes | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ca…f748backed Yes | 73c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-09?this page
- Will HNK Hajduk Split vs. MŠK Žilina end in a draw?No won
- Will MŠK Žilina win on 2026-07-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.