Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1278b64fddc56e1927cbec49be5befe7e65fb0512f9fada84c85df6820101d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 57c | 775.32$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.43 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 654.23$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.38 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 524.35$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.34 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 419.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Under | 56c | 376.05$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 41c | 311.85$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 309.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 279$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c0…44febacked Under | 54c | 272.27$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…7543backed Under | 50c | 205.77$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…d028backed Under | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 31c | 117.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 52c | 112.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 28c | 109.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Under | 72c | 109.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 66c | 73.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 70.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…e4abbacked Under | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed Under | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 35c | 45.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 37c | 29.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 67c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Under | 67c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.